Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
